Forecasting Data

Metorik has a powerful forecasting system that allows you to forecast nearly any chart in the entire app. There is also a dedicated forecast reporting which allows you to quickly see sales, order, and customer forecasts.

Our forecasting system leverages Trend, which is a powerful forecasting algorithm that accounts for seasonality, trends, outliers, and missing values. The system is based on forecasting research done at Monash University in Melbourne and uses the TBATS for predictions. All forecasting and calculations are done on our end in real-time with zero connection to external APIs.

Forecasts, like many things in life, are not certain, and should only be used as a guide. A forecast is only as good as the data that goes into it - keep that in mind when viewing smaller periods of time or when working with limited data.

Forecast Report

The forecast report is a good starting point to see forecasts of your data. It has a chart for gross sales forecast, order forecast, and new customer forecast:

By default, it looks at the past 12 months of data and forecasts based on that, but you can increase the period by clicking the Based On Past x Months toggle in the top right corner.

Forecast any chart in Metorik

You will see a magic wand button in most charts in Metorik. This wand indicates that the chart is able to be forecasted. All you need to do is click the button, and Metorik will create a forecast based on the current data in the chart:

For example, here we are forecasting sales for two different products on the compare products report:

Some considerations when forecasting:

1. You need to select a period with at least 10 data points.
2. If you get a flat or linear forecast, this is expected. It means no seasonality is detected in the series.

Stock Level Forecasts

The product/variation velocity reports allow you to see how many days of stock you have available in your inventory. The report looks uses your daily gross sold per product and the current stock on hand, and then calculates the estimated days of stock left.

With this information, you can make key decisions around when to order additional stock, which products are not performing, and which are exceeding expectations.

The Based on last X days dropdown in the top right corner, allows you to choose which period of sales we should use for the calculations:

You can also change the ordering of the report by clicking on the Order By dropdown: